Solar imports from China to hit a new record

From the newsletter

African countries are on track to break solar import records in 2025. According to EMBER, a global energy data platform, African countries imported solar panels worth 7,679 MW from China in the first half of 2025, which is 2,000 MW more than they did in the same period in 2024. This comes as a few countries, like Egypt, are now building giga-scale solar projects.

• Chinese solar PV exports to Africa have more than quadrupled in the last five years, with 2024 marking record imports of 12,943 MW. Growth is widespread across the continent, with 20 countries each importing at least 100 MW.

• The rise in imports for African countries has been supported not only by growing demand but also by a significant fall in panel prices, which have halved in the last five years, now costing just $0.10 per watt.

More details

• China has long been a trade partner of African nations. However, this partnership has significantly deepened over the last decade, driven by the increasing global momentum towards energy transition. As a world leader in manufacturing renewable energy technologies, China's solar PV exports make up about 80% of the global market. Between 2010 and 2021, China provided an estimated $65 billion in financing for renewable projects throughout Africa. This trend continued into 2024, when renewables made up 59% of all Chinese energy projects announced on the continent.

• The African continent is generally moving quickly to adopt renewable energy sources in the wake of global fossil fuel challenges that threaten its energy security. Since the start of the year, we have tracked at least 35,000 MW of renewable energy projects under development, with more than 2,000 MW already completed and feeding power into the grid.

• The surge in solar panel imports demonstrates that this growth is occurring across many countries, not just a select few. In 2020, only nine countries imported more than 100 MW of solar capacity. This figure doubled to 20 countries in 2024. The first half of 2025 is showing even greater promise, with 18 countries having imported over 100 MW and six with over 50 MW.

• In the first half of 2025 alone, five countries have already imported more than 500 MW. However, the distribution of these imports remains skewed towards North, South, and West Africa, with no East African country appearing in this top category. While South Africa led with 1,532 MW and was the only country to import over 1,000 MW, West Africa followed with Nigeria at 900 MW. North Africa dominated this tier with four countries: Algeria (848 MW), Egypt (553 MW), and Morocco (535 MW).

• While the top spots are still dominated by Africa's larger economies, several countries have demonstrated significant potential, with their solar imports for the first half of 2025 already surpassing their total annual imports for 2024. Algeria, for instance, has imported 489 MW more than it did in all of 2024, doubling its 2024 figures with half-year imports. Sudan follows closely, having imported 301 MW more, which is five times its 2024 total. Other nations showing notable increases include Chad at 72 MW, and Eritrea and Liberia each at 48 MW. 

• Despite the impressive growth, challenges remain. High capital costs for solar projects in Africa, often three to seven times higher than in mature markets, are a significant hurdle. Furthermore, while green finance flows to Africa doubled to $40 billion in 2024, the continent still only attracts 3% of global energy investment. Mobilising private investment through innovative financing mechanisms and strengthening local financial institutions will be crucial for sustained growth.

Our take

• Going by these figures, we expect Algeria to join the list of countries with over 1,000 MW of imports, such as South Africa, Nigeria, Morocco, and Egypt. As for countries importing more than 100 MW, we expect their number to exceed at least 25.

• These imports have cost African countries more than $8.7 billion since 2018, suggesting it is now time to look inward towards local manufacturing. This money alone could establish several manufacturing plants capable of producing at least 200,000 MW of panels annually.

• To make these changes happen, more than just capital is needed. There must be strong political will to create the necessary supporting policies, which is currently lacking in many African countries. However, this political commitment is essential for the long-term sustainability of the sector.