Solar takes off in the least expected countries in Africa

From the newsletter

At least 19 African countries have imported more solar panels in the past seven months than they did in the entire 2024, according to the global think tank Ember. Algeria tops the list with 1,072 MW, which is more than triple last year’s total, followed by Sudan with 493 MW, more than eight times its 2024 imports, as African nations push electrification to new heights.

• In total, African countries imported 9,500 MW in the last seven months, which is more than the total installed capacity for Nigeria, Africa's most populous country. Even countries least expected, like Chad and Liberia, have already surpassed their 2024 imports.

• The growing trend is spread across Africa, with 19 countries so far having imported more than 100 MW in the past seven months, compared to 20 the entire last year. If the trend continues, at least 26 countries are expected to cross the 100 MW mark.

More details

• Since 2021, following the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, the demand for solar energy in Africa has been on a strong upward trajectory. Imports of solar panels from China have more than quadrupled between 2021 and 2024, and 2025 is on track to break that record. This growth is being driven not only by rising demand but also by a significant drop in the price of solar panels, which have halved in the last five years and now cost just $0.10 per watt.

• The increase in solar panel imports shows that this trend is widespread across the continent, not limited to a few countries. In 2020, only nine countries imported more than 100 MW of solar capacity. By 2024, this number had doubled to 20 countries. The first seven months of 2025 show even greater promise, with 19 countries already having imported over 100 MW and another ten importing over 50 MW.

• Some of the fastest-growing markets include Eritrea, which recorded 36 times more imports than last year, followed by Equatorial Guinea at 20 times more, Botswana with nine times more and Sudan with eight times more. While Eritrea, Equatorial Guinea and Botswana’s growth is from a relatively small base, Sudan and Algeria recorded the largest absolute increases, with Algeria importing 722 MW and Sudan 433 MW more panels than they did in 2024.

• These imports reflect the project developments taking place in these countries. In our Renewables Rising project database, we have tracked Eritrea with 96 MW under development, Botswana with 60 MW, and Chad with 96 MW. For instance, Eritrea completed the construction of a 36 MW solar PV plant integrated with a 20 MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) in May, while Sudan commissioned its first hybrid solar plant with a 20 MW solar capacity and a 14 MWh BESS in January.

• What is needed now is for these countries to move from pilot projects to large-scale initiatives. This won't be an easy task, as many African governments are burdened by debt and have less-developed policies in the energy sector. However, there is hope, as many are updating their energy policies to attract private capital. Nigeria, Niger, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and over a dozen other countries are partnering with the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB) to facilitate better policy development and commitment to these projects.

• Despite the growth seen in smaller markets, the larger economies still dominate in terms of imports and capital flow. South Africa has maintained its position at the top as the country continues to address its ongoing issue with load shedding. Nigeria, Egypt, and Algeria each continue to import more than 1 GW of solar panels. However, recent developments in local manufacturing are expected to change this dynamic. Solar cell and panel manufacturing in North Africa is taking shape, and Ethiopia has already taken the lead in local solar manufacturing.

Our take

• As many African governments have sunk into debt, it means they cannot fund the transition alone. Blended finance, green bonds, and risk guarantees from DFIs like AfDB and World Bank will be critical to crowd in private capital at scale.

• The declining cost of solar panels is a huge driver, but it’s not the only one. The high cost and unreliability of traditional power sources will continue to push both businesses and households toward solar as a more stable and cost-effective solution. 

• Solar is the most viable and attractive option for countries with less developed grids or those looking for alternatives to expensive fossil fuel imports. This is expected to define the next growth phase, especially in those countries with less developed grid networks.